The Fed is learning from the mistake

Does the soft landing survive?

EU economy are recovering mildly

Is the Fed sleepwalking into a policy mistake?

Special Reports

No recession has been declared

  • As a signal of deep weakness in the economy, this big revision for labor market is, for now, an outlier compared to the contemporaneous data. As a signal that job growth has been overstated by an average of 68,000 per month during the revision period, it is more or less accurate.

But that just brings average employment growth down to 174,000 from 242,000.

Why the first rate cut matters a lot?

  • After two years' tightening cycle, the Fed finally signaled that they will cut rate in September, while labor market is showing some weakness. The remarks come with the sharp cooling off of labor market, implying that the Fed begins to worry about the state of labor market, and won't want to fall into a rut to unduly jeopardize the economy due to the tightening monetary policy.

A narrative of recession is prevailing

  • After disappointing July job report being released, the narrative that a recession is coming in the U.S. has been prevailing among investing community.Contrary to what many believe, investment research firm BCA Research sees that the economy is on the brink of a recession, and the predicted upcoming rate cuts will not be sufficient to steer markets out of it.

Policy changes will take time to move through the economy

  • Surprisingly, or as expected, no matter how to characterize the Fed move, the Fed eventually ends its tightening cycle, starting the easing cycle with the first rate cut of 50bps in four years. Maybe 50bps rate cut has been priced in by the market, although there is still a big split around the size and pace of rate cuts among economists.

Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests?

  • According to the latest data released by Bureau of Labor Statistics, the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year.

Is European economy out of the woods?

  • Some economists argue that the European economy has successfully survived terrible prophecy that threatened its economy in recent years based on some positive signs.

More challenges are facing the EU

  • EU economy are somewhat showing some signs of recovery, but there are still some challenges facing the EU, such as contending with Russia’s war in Ukraine and a tenuous trade relationship with China which are the overriding issues that need to be tackled with.

Special Report

Report For China listed Company

Financial Survey

Global AI Survey
  • More data show that investors are optimistic about the future of AI.
Global City Competitiveness Survey
  • Global economic and social development are showing significant divergence.
Layout of Tech leadership
  • Driven by economic globalization, technology and innovation are developing rapidly.
Global Human Resources Survey
  • Global Human Resources Survey intends to analyze the investment globally.
Survey of Competitiveness of Science and Tech
  • Faced with the irreversible loss of manufacturing jobs, can AI really create jobs for human?
Consumer Behavior Research
  • Focus on the purchasing power of consumers amid high inflation environment.
Survey of Competitiveness of SMEs
  • Small and medium-sized enterprises are the core force in the economic system.
U.S. Medical Research
  • Understand the state of U.S. medical space, analyzing its key problems.

FINANCIAL VIEWPOINTS

More signals point to worrysome economy

  • If U.S. economy has shown some signs of cooling off? The answer is absolutely sure, that is yes. No matter the labor market, or the perchasing power of consumer both show the signs of weakness.

The unemployment of 4.3% for July is indicating the further deterioration of labor market, also signaling the lagging impact of tightening monetary policy. On the flip side, in terms of the perchasing power of consumer, an uptick in sausage demand can offer the lastest sign of consumers tightening their belts as they continue grappling with high prices.

Will one rate cut be enough for this year?

  • IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said recently that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complicated factors to the path to lower inflation. In another words, the Fed still has a lot of work to do to fight inflation.

IMF sees bumpy road in lowering inflation

  • The International Monetary Fund released its latest World Economic Outlook, warning that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

Fresh labor market data sparked a reassessment of market views on the economy

  • The debate around if U.S. economy will tip into a recession has been prevailing on the Wall Street. Economists at Goldman raised their 12-month U.S. recession probability from 15% to 25% after the U.S. July jobs report of Aug. 2 showed nonfarm payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 114,000.

“Sahm Rule” --Is it a rational indicator for the economy?

  • “Sahm Rule” is a new measure for the state of economy, referring that the initial phase of a recession has begun when a three-month moving average of U.S. unemployment rate is at least half percentage point higher than the 12-month low.

Is there a fresh sign of cracks forming in the U.S. labor market?

  • The lastest survey released by New York Federal Reserve shows that, of those who were employed at the time of the last survey in March, 88% still had jobs, the lowest in data that goes back to 2014.

Satisfaction with current compensation dropped sharply

  • The latest survey released by New York Federal Reserve shows that on wages, satisfaction with current compensation dropped to 56.7%, down more than 3 percentage points from the same period in 2023.

Special Report

Report For China's Most Competitive City

Financial Survey

National Investment Report
  • Amid the environment of deglobalization, the economic development to some extent will dependent on the economic structural reform.
China Economic Metropolis
  • The characteristics of China's metropolitan area are quite different.
Global Private Banking Survey
  • Focus on analysis and research on the development history
Focus on Family Trusts
  • A trust agency is entrusted by an individual or family to manage
The State of China Property Market and Equity Market
  • China Property Market, which accounts for one third of GDP is embattled now.
Post-Brexit Survey
  • The risks that are threating global financial stability continue to rise.
Investment Opportunities In Emerging Markets
  • Global economic downside risks have weakened, the investment opportunities in emerging markets are increasingly rising.
Public Welfare and Wealth Management
  • After higher yields in 2023, investors are bracing for interest rate cuts that could put a damper on shorter-term savings.

Financial Data

Survey For Global Consumer On Luxury Products
Report For Global Environmental Data
Global Financial statistics
Global Service Industry Survey

Economic Forum

The Fed finds itself at a bit of a crossroads

In recent months, The Fed has been repeatedly reinforced the point that they need more confidence in terms of the progress on inflation before they take action to cut rates. This viewpoints has raised many concerns among economists and investors. Some economists argue that holding rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic activity, undoing the progress they have made in terms of creating good paying jobs.

Europe looks like a supermarket for the U.S.
IMF chief calls for further integration
The productivity gap between U.S.&EU
Labor market provides a conflicting sign for the Fed

Financial Comment

How the Fed's quest for transparency made markets more volatile

When the Federal Reserve speaks, the market listens. Throughout 2024, investors eagerly have been following the Fed conference for signals around interest rates cuts.

IMF sees bumpy road in lowering inflation
Will one rate cut be enough this year?
How companies can navigate supply chain complexity
How does the Fed communicate with the public

Business

Microsoft IT outage hits global supply chain heavily

  • The CrowdStrike software bug that crashed Microsoft operating systems and caused the largest IT outage in history caused disruptions at U.S. and global ports, with highly complex air freight systems suffering hit heavily.
What hinders Shein's expansion around the globe
Top choice for firms diversifying supply chains
Volatile supply chains are now just the new normal

Wealth

How to prepare for the shifting rate cycle

  • After more than a year of dealing with rapid inflation, consumers have become numb to higher prices. But as inflation cools, experts say there are strategies that can help you weather current conditions and prepare for a shift in interest rates.
Reshape your finances for 2024
The best places for short-term savings in 2024 with rate cuts ahead
Make your cash work for you

Tech

How A.I. can create jobs for human

  • When A.I. emerged in early 2023, it sent shock waves through the whole world, including igniting fear among employees because they believed human ultimately will be replaced by A.I.. Relevant data indicated that 300 million jobs around the world stand to be impacted by AI and automation, reflecting the advancement of A.I. trickling its way into the workplace.
Intel unveils new AI chip—AI arm race is heating
Google is rolling out new AI models for health care
AI can 'disproportionately' help defend against cybersecurity threats

Management

Is ESG still relevant?

  • ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors have become increasingly relevant in recent years, as companies and investors are realizing the importance of sustainable practices and ethical business operations. As environmental and social issues become more pressing, ESG has become a key factor in corporate decision-making and investment strategies.
ESG investment could drive real change and boost returns
ESG investing is good for business
Megacap tech stocks dominate ESG funds

Research

Report for Risk Volatility Tracking of Global Equity Markets
  • Track and study 49 developed and emerging equity markets, paying close attention to risk volatility.
Listed Companies Research
  • The best way to understand the investment value of a listed company
New Risk Exposures In Crude Oil Market
  • The international crude oil market has fluctuated sharply recently.
Global Equity Fund Report
  • Equity investment in private companies, non-listed companies
Securities and Fund Industry Survey
  • Raise capital through the sale of fund to form an independent fund
TThe economic crisis in post-pandemic
  • The global public health crisis triggered by the pandemic has had a huge implication on the global economy.

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