Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests?
"According to the latest data released by Bureau of Labor Statistics, the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year. ."
"Maybe this implys the economy is already weaker than the headline data suggests and the Fed should already be easing.Theoretically policy changes by the Fed will takes time to move through the economy, so if the economy is weaker than the headline data suggests, they will need to accumulate a sufficient amount of easing, maybe 150, 200 basis points rate cut. And once they’ve done that amount of easing, it takes six to eight months to transmit that. ."
"If the economy suddenly shows signs of more weakness at the start of 2025, it will take until the second half of 2025 to see the effects of any easing transmitted through the economy, which could look quite different by that time.."
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